The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 19?
32°C 48%
33°C 43%
34°C 10%
31°C 4%
NEW
$17,164 Vol.
NEW
$17,164 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
48%
33°C
43%
34°C
10%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 48%
33°C 43%
34°C 10%
31°C 4%
NEW
$17,164 Vol.
NEW
$17,164 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
26°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,845 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,489 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,687 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,639 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,640 Vol.
4%
32°C
$1,187 Vol.
48%
33°C
$1,571 Vol.
43%
34°C
$430 Vol.
10%
35°C
$359 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$1,107 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$17,164End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,164End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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