**Current short-range numerical weather prediction models, including those from Environment Canada and major global ensembles, indicate a highest temperature near 25 °C for Toronto on July 19, supported by a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly flow and modest surface heating.** This places the market-implied probability peak at 25 °C (36 %) and 24 °C (28.5 %), reflecting tight clustering around typical mid-July climatology of ~26 °C while accounting for model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual smoke or humidity effects. Differentiation among 24–26 °C outcomes stems from subtle variations in forecasted afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and the precise timing of any weak trough passage, with lower probabilities assigned to 27 °C+ (under 7 %) or cooler readings due to limited support for stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest runs. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official Environment Canada updates for any shifts ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on July 19?
Highest temperature in Toronto on July 19?
25°C 37%
24°C 36%
26°C 14%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
13%
24°C
36%
25°C
37%
26°C
14%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 37%
24°C 36%
26°C 14%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
$222 Vol.
1%
22°C
$115 Vol.
1%
23°C
$561 Vol.
13%
24°C
$733 Vol.
36%
25°C
$1,054 Vol.
37%
26°C
$1,134 Vol.
14%
27°C
$381 Vol.
3%
28°C
$71 Vol.
1%
29°C
$476 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,636 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$196 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range numerical weather prediction models, including those from Environment Canada and major global ensembles, indicate a highest temperature near 25 °C for Toronto on July 19, supported by a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly flow and modest surface heating.** This places the market-implied probability peak at 25 °C (36 %) and 24 °C (28.5 %), reflecting tight clustering around typical mid-July climatology of ~26 °C while accounting for model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual smoke or humidity effects. Differentiation among 24–26 °C outcomes stems from subtle variations in forecasted afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and the precise timing of any weak trough passage, with lower probabilities assigned to 27 °C+ (under 7 %) or cooler readings due to limited support for stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest runs. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official Environment Canada updates for any shifts ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$6,578End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range numerical weather prediction models, including those from Environment Canada and major global ensembles, indicate a highest temperature near 25 °C for Toronto on July 19, supported by a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly flow and modest surface heating.** This places the market-implied probability peak at 25 °C (36 %) and 24 °C (28.5 %), reflecting tight clustering around typical mid-July climatology of ~26 °C while accounting for model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual smoke or humidity effects. Differentiation among 24–26 °C outcomes stems from subtle variations in forecasted afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and the precise timing of any weak trough passage, with lower probabilities assigned to 27 °C+ (under 7 %) or cooler readings due to limited support for stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest runs. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official Environment Canada updates for any shifts ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,578End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range numerical weather prediction models, including those from Environment Canada and major global ensembles, indicate a highest temperature near 25 °C for Toronto on July 19, supported by a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly flow and modest surface heating.** This places the market-implied probability peak at 25 °C (36 %) and 24 °C (28.5 %), reflecting tight clustering around typical mid-July climatology of ~26 °C while accounting for model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any residual smoke or humidity effects. Differentiation among 24–26 °C outcomes stems from subtle variations in forecasted afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and the precise timing of any weak trough passage, with lower probabilities assigned to 27 °C+ (under 7 %) or cooler readings due to limited support for stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest runs. Traders monitor the next model cycles and official Environment Canada updates for any shifts ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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