Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$177,823 Vol.
$177,823 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$177,823 Vol.
$177,823 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
$1,566 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,840 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,355 Vol.
No
28°C
$20,248 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,778 Vol.
No
30°C
$40,782 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$23,597 Vol.
No
32°C
$27,024 Vol.
No
33°C
$18,690 Vol.
No
34°C
$8,840 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$4,104 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$177,823End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$177,823End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions