Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a Pacific frontal system arriving Thursday night will bring widespread rain and extensive cloud cover to Seattle on September 25, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near 59–61 °F. Persistent onshore flow and high humidity further suppress maximum temperatures, while light southwesterly winds prevent strong afternoon mixing. With the market’s top bins (58–61 °F) holding roughly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting the range of model solutions for exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 62 °F. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs released over the next 24 hours will refine the precise maximum and likely shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on September 25?
Highest temperature in Seattle on September 25?
60-61°F 25%
58-59°F 23%
64-65°F 20%
54-55°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
4%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
4%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
16%
58-59°F
23%
60-61°F
25%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
8%
68°F or higher
5%
60-61°F 25%
58-59°F 23%
64-65°F 20%
54-55°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
4%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
4%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
19%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
16%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
23%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
25%
62-63°F
$20 Vol.
11%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
20%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
8%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a Pacific frontal system arriving Thursday night will bring widespread rain and extensive cloud cover to Seattle on September 25, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near 59–61 °F. Persistent onshore flow and high humidity further suppress maximum temperatures, while light southwesterly winds prevent strong afternoon mixing. With the market’s top bins (58–61 °F) holding roughly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting the range of model solutions for exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 62 °F. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs released over the next 24 hours will refine the precise maximum and likely shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 7:55 AM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a Pacific frontal system arriving Thursday night will bring widespread rain and extensive cloud cover to Seattle on September 25, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near 59–61 °F. Persistent onshore flow and high humidity further suppress maximum temperatures, while light southwesterly winds prevent strong afternoon mixing. With the market’s top bins (58–61 °F) holding roughly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting the range of model solutions for exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 62 °F. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs released over the next 24 hours will refine the precise maximum and likely shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a Pacific frontal system arriving Thursday night will bring widespread rain and extensive cloud cover to Seattle on September 25, limiting solar heating and capping daytime highs near 59–61 °F. Persistent onshore flow and high humidity further suppress maximum temperatures, while light southwesterly winds prevent strong afternoon mixing. With the market’s top bins (58–61 °F) holding roughly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting the range of model solutions for exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 62 °F. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs released over the next 24 hours will refine the precise maximum and likely shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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