Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GEM and GFS indicate Mexico City highs on September 25 likely reaching 24–26°C, with scattered cloud cover and 15–55% precipitation chances that could limit peak warming. This aligns with the city's September climatological average high near 25°C at its 2,240 m elevation, where daytime heating depends on solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and moisture from the surrounding highlands. Trader consensus reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher incorporates these ensemble outputs alongside historical variability of ±2°C around the mean. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the range as landfall steering patterns and local convection evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 25?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 25?
26°C or higher 52%
25°C 31%
24°C 19%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
3%
23°C
13%
24°C
19%
25°C
31%
26°C or higher
52%
26°C or higher 52%
25°C 31%
24°C 19%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
17°C
$10 Vol.
1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
2%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$10 Vol.
2%
21°C
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$5 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GEM and GFS indicate Mexico City highs on September 25 likely reaching 24–26°C, with scattered cloud cover and 15–55% precipitation chances that could limit peak warming. This aligns with the city's September climatological average high near 25°C at its 2,240 m elevation, where daytime heating depends on solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and moisture from the surrounding highlands. Trader consensus reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher incorporates these ensemble outputs alongside historical variability of ±2°C around the mean. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the range as landfall steering patterns and local convection evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$61End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GEM and GFS indicate Mexico City highs on September 25 likely reaching 24–26°C, with scattered cloud cover and 15–55% precipitation chances that could limit peak warming. This aligns with the city's September climatological average high near 25°C at its 2,240 m elevation, where daytime heating depends on solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and moisture from the surrounding highlands. Trader consensus reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher incorporates these ensemble outputs alongside historical variability of ±2°C around the mean. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the range as landfall steering patterns and local convection evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GEM and GFS indicate Mexico City highs on September 25 likely reaching 24–26°C, with scattered cloud cover and 15–55% precipitation chances that could limit peak warming. This aligns with the city's September climatological average high near 25°C at its 2,240 m elevation, where daytime heating depends on solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and moisture from the surrounding highlands. Trader consensus reflected in the 50.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher incorporates these ensemble outputs alongside historical variability of ±2°C around the mean. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the range as landfall steering patterns and local convection evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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