Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Los Angeles on September 25 will likely fall in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy conditions with a strengthening marine layer and light onshore flow. This forecast consensus, consistent with climatological norms near 62°F, underpins trader positioning around the 78°F-or-higher outcome while assigning meaningful probability to cooler bins below 60°F amid typical model spread and potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. Historical records show September 25 lows ranging from 52°F to the mid-70s, highlighting the role of variable coastal stratus and wind patterns in driving short-term uncertainty two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 25?
68-69°F 56%
59°F or below 50%
78°F or higher 50%
70-71°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
59°F or below
50%
60-61°F
20%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
56%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
50%
68-69°F 56%
59°F or below 50%
78°F or higher 50%
70-71°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
59°F or below
$10 Vol.
50%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
20%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
20%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
20%
68-69°F
$61 Vol.
56%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
21%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
20%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
1%
78°F or higher
$10 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Los Angeles on September 25 will likely fall in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy conditions with a strengthening marine layer and light onshore flow. This forecast consensus, consistent with climatological norms near 62°F, underpins trader positioning around the 78°F-or-higher outcome while assigning meaningful probability to cooler bins below 60°F amid typical model spread and potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. Historical records show September 25 lows ranging from 52°F to the mid-70s, highlighting the role of variable coastal stratus and wind patterns in driving short-term uncertainty two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Los Angeles on September 25 will likely fall in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy conditions with a strengthening marine layer and light onshore flow. This forecast consensus, consistent with climatological norms near 62°F, underpins trader positioning around the 78°F-or-higher outcome while assigning meaningful probability to cooler bins below 60°F amid typical model spread and potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. Historical records show September 25 lows ranging from 52°F to the mid-70s, highlighting the role of variable coastal stratus and wind patterns in driving short-term uncertainty two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Los Angeles on September 25 will likely fall in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy conditions with a strengthening marine layer and light onshore flow. This forecast consensus, consistent with climatological norms near 62°F, underpins trader positioning around the 78°F-or-higher outcome while assigning meaningful probability to cooler bins below 60°F amid typical model spread and potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. Historical records show September 25 lows ranging from 52°F to the mid-70s, highlighting the role of variable coastal stratus and wind patterns in driving short-term uncertainty two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions