Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and models such as those referenced by NOAA indicate persistent warm, humid conditions over Houston through September 25, with northeast winds and partly cloudy skies supporting daytime highs in the mid-90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s. This pattern, driven by a stable warm air mass without an approaching cold front, aligns with recent climatological trends of elevated minimum temperatures in late September. Market-implied odds favoring 86°F or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential model revisions, while lower ranges capture scenarios of modest nocturnal cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours represent key data points that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 25?
67°F or below 100%
86°F or higher 98%
72-73°F 40%
74-75°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
67°F or below
100%
68-69°F
39%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
40%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
39%
86°F or higher
98%
67°F or below 100%
86°F or higher 98%
72-73°F 40%
74-75°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
39%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
39%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
40%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
39%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and models such as those referenced by NOAA indicate persistent warm, humid conditions over Houston through September 25, with northeast winds and partly cloudy skies supporting daytime highs in the mid-90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s. This pattern, driven by a stable warm air mass without an approaching cold front, aligns with recent climatological trends of elevated minimum temperatures in late September. Market-implied odds favoring 86°F or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential model revisions, while lower ranges capture scenarios of modest nocturnal cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours represent key data points that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and models such as those referenced by NOAA indicate persistent warm, humid conditions over Houston through September 25, with northeast winds and partly cloudy skies supporting daytime highs in the mid-90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s. This pattern, driven by a stable warm air mass without an approaching cold front, aligns with recent climatological trends of elevated minimum temperatures in late September. Market-implied odds favoring 86°F or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential model revisions, while lower ranges capture scenarios of modest nocturnal cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours represent key data points that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and models such as those referenced by NOAA indicate persistent warm, humid conditions over Houston through September 25, with northeast winds and partly cloudy skies supporting daytime highs in the mid-90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s. This pattern, driven by a stable warm air mass without an approaching cold front, aligns with recent climatological trends of elevated minimum temperatures in late September. Market-implied odds favoring 86°F or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential model revisions, while lower ranges capture scenarios of modest nocturnal cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours represent key data points that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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