Recent short-term forecast model runs for Guangzhou show notable spread in afternoon cloud cover and convective rainfall under the active East Asian summer monsoon, keeping the highest temperature on July 18 closely contested between 33 °C and 35 °C. Subtropical high positioning and moisture advection from the South China Sea can suppress maximum temperatures through increased humidity and scattered thunderstorms, while clearer subsidence periods allow stronger solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the city center. An emerging El Niño pattern is expected to favor warmer anomalies and more frequent typhoon activity this July, adding further variability to steering flows and precipitation timing. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow probability gaps among these central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on July 18?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 18?
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$64,645 Vol.
$64,645 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$64,645 Vol.
$64,645 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
28°C or below
$1,311 Vol.
No
29°C
$7,714 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,375 Vol.
No
31°C
$17,330 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$4,911 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,501 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,735 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,169 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,823 Vol.
No
37°C
$4,974 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$4,804 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Guangzhou show notable spread in afternoon cloud cover and convective rainfall under the active East Asian summer monsoon, keeping the highest temperature on July 18 closely contested between 33 °C and 35 °C. Subtropical high positioning and moisture advection from the South China Sea can suppress maximum temperatures through increased humidity and scattered thunderstorms, while clearer subsidence periods allow stronger solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the city center. An emerging El Niño pattern is expected to favor warmer anomalies and more frequent typhoon activity this July, adding further variability to steering flows and precipitation timing. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow probability gaps among these central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$64,645End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Guangzhou show notable spread in afternoon cloud cover and convective rainfall under the active East Asian summer monsoon, keeping the highest temperature on July 18 closely contested between 33 °C and 35 °C. Subtropical high positioning and moisture advection from the South China Sea can suppress maximum temperatures through increased humidity and scattered thunderstorms, while clearer subsidence periods allow stronger solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the city center. An emerging El Niño pattern is expected to favor warmer anomalies and more frequent typhoon activity this July, adding further variability to steering flows and precipitation timing. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow probability gaps among these central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64,645End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-term forecast model runs for Guangzhou show notable spread in afternoon cloud cover and convective rainfall under the active East Asian summer monsoon, keeping the highest temperature on July 18 closely contested between 33 °C and 35 °C. Subtropical high positioning and moisture advection from the South China Sea can suppress maximum temperatures through increased humidity and scattered thunderstorms, while clearer subsidence periods allow stronger solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the city center. An emerging El Niño pattern is expected to favor warmer anomalies and more frequent typhoon activity this July, adding further variability to steering flows and precipitation timing. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow probability gaps among these central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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