Forecast models from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF converge on a peak temperature near 24°C for Munich on July 18, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered thundery showers, and variable cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from differences in shower timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 23°C and 25°C. This setup aligns with typical mid-July climatology, where average highs reach 24–25°C, while limited destabilization keeps extreme outliers below 10% probability. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on July 18?
Highest temperature in Munich on July 18?
25°C 31%
24°C 28%
26°C 17.8%
23°C 16%
NEW
$18,752 Vol.
NEW
$18,752 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
16%
24°C
28%
25°C
31%
26°C
18%
27°C
4%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 31%
24°C 28%
26°C 17.8%
23°C 16%
NEW
$18,752 Vol.
NEW
$18,752 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
19°C or below
$721 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$636 Vol.
1%
21°C
$411 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,644 Vol.
4%
23°C
$4,740 Vol.
16%
24°C
$1,198 Vol.
28%
25°C
$4,219 Vol.
31%
26°C
$2,415 Vol.
18%
27°C
$1,251 Vol.
4%
28°C
$595 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$933 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF converge on a peak temperature near 24°C for Munich on July 18, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered thundery showers, and variable cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from differences in shower timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 23°C and 25°C. This setup aligns with typical mid-July climatology, where average highs reach 24–25°C, while limited destabilization keeps extreme outliers below 10% probability. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$18,752End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF converge on a peak temperature near 24°C for Munich on July 18, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered thundery showers, and variable cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from differences in shower timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 23°C and 25°C. This setup aligns with typical mid-July climatology, where average highs reach 24–25°C, while limited destabilization keeps extreme outliers below 10% probability. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,752End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the German Weather Service and ECMWF converge on a peak temperature near 24°C for Munich on July 18, driven by moderate westerly flow, scattered thundery showers, and variable cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from differences in shower timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 23°C and 25°C. This setup aligns with typical mid-July climatology, where average highs reach 24–25°C, while limited destabilization keeps extreme outliers below 10% probability. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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