Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Houston on July 18 favors a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 90s under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and moderate humidity, positioning the 92–93 °F bin as the market leader at 38.5 %. Typical July climatology at Intercontinental Airport shows a 1991–2020 normal high of 95 °F, with recent model runs reflecting suppressed heat advection from upstream ridging rather than a strong heat dome. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, limiting upside risk above 96 °F while capping downside probability below 90 °F. Final forecast adjustments from the afternoon model cycle and any late-day convection could still shift the exact bin before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on July 18?
Highest temperature in Houston on July 18?
92-93°F 100.0%
83°F or below <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$30,048 Vol.
$30,048 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
83°F or below
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
Yes
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102°F or higher
No
92-93°F 100.0%
83°F or below <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$30,048 Vol.
$30,048 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
83°F or below
$335 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$1,797 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$899 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$1,629 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$6,424 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$9,534 Vol.
Yes
94-95°F
$4,033 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$2,010 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$2,262 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$571 Vol.
No
102°F or higher
$554 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Houston on July 18 favors a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 90s under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and moderate humidity, positioning the 92–93 °F bin as the market leader at 38.5 %. Typical July climatology at Intercontinental Airport shows a 1991–2020 normal high of 95 °F, with recent model runs reflecting suppressed heat advection from upstream ridging rather than a strong heat dome. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, limiting upside risk above 96 °F while capping downside probability below 90 °F. Final forecast adjustments from the afternoon model cycle and any late-day convection could still shift the exact bin before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$30,048End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Houston on July 18 favors a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 90s under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and moderate humidity, positioning the 92–93 °F bin as the market leader at 38.5 %. Typical July climatology at Intercontinental Airport shows a 1991–2020 normal high of 95 °F, with recent model runs reflecting suppressed heat advection from upstream ridging rather than a strong heat dome. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, limiting upside risk above 96 °F while capping downside probability below 90 °F. Final forecast adjustments from the afternoon model cycle and any late-day convection could still shift the exact bin before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,048End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current National Weather Service and NOAA ensemble guidance for Houston on July 18 favors a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 90s under partly cloudy skies, light southerly flow, and moderate humidity, positioning the 92–93 °F bin as the market leader at 38.5 %. Typical July climatology at Intercontinental Airport shows a 1991–2020 normal high of 95 °F, with recent model runs reflecting suppressed heat advection from upstream ridging rather than a strong heat dome. Ensemble spread remains modest this close to the event, limiting upside risk above 96 °F while capping downside probability below 90 °F. Final forecast adjustments from the afternoon model cycle and any late-day convection could still shift the exact bin before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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