Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–32°C for Hong Kong’s July 17 maximum, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory guidance for typical midsummer conditions under a normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature outlook. Key drivers include persistent southerly monsoon flow sustaining high humidity that curbs daytime heating, combined with the risk of afternoon showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and the long-term warming trend support readings near the upper end of the 30–33°C envelope, while clearer skies or stronger subsidence could push toward 32°C. Updated short-range model runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 17?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 17?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$351,797 Vol.
$351,797 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$351,797 Vol.
$351,797 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
25°C or below
$9,645 Vol.
No
26°C
$20,635 Vol.
No
27°C
$27,328 Vol.
No
28°C
$65,039 Vol.
No
29°C
$55,930 Vol.
No
30°C
$70,652 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$44,816 Vol.
No
32°C
$31,001 Vol.
No
33°C
$17,989 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,460 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$2,303 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–32°C for Hong Kong’s July 17 maximum, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory guidance for typical midsummer conditions under a normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature outlook. Key drivers include persistent southerly monsoon flow sustaining high humidity that curbs daytime heating, combined with the risk of afternoon showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and the long-term warming trend support readings near the upper end of the 30–33°C envelope, while clearer skies or stronger subsidence could push toward 32°C. Updated short-range model runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$351,797End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–32°C for Hong Kong’s July 17 maximum, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory guidance for typical midsummer conditions under a normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature outlook. Key drivers include persistent southerly monsoon flow sustaining high humidity that curbs daytime heating, combined with the risk of afternoon showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and the long-term warming trend support readings near the upper end of the 30–33°C envelope, while clearer skies or stronger subsidence could push toward 32°C. Updated short-range model runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$351,797End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–32°C for Hong Kong’s July 17 maximum, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory guidance for typical midsummer conditions under a normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature outlook. Key drivers include persistent southerly monsoon flow sustaining high humidity that curbs daytime heating, combined with the risk of afternoon showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and the long-term warming trend support readings near the upper end of the 30–33°C envelope, while clearer skies or stronger subsidence could push toward 32°C. Updated short-range model runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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