**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.** Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 18?
70-71°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$21,068 Vol.
$21,068 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$21,068 Vol.
$21,068 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
63°F or below
$1,326 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$2,651 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$2,268 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,232 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$2,161 Vol.
Yes
72-73°F
$1,536 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$3,294 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$2,937 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$2,497 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$688 Vol.
No
82°F or higher
$477 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.**
Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$21,068End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.**
Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,068End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.** Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions