Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions and light southwesterly flow supporting a peak temperature near 93–94°F in Central Park on July 16, placing the closely matched 92–93°F and 94–95°F brackets at the top of trader probabilities. Coastal sea-breeze timing and afternoon marine-layer depth introduce the main uncertainty, potentially trimming 2–4°F from inland readings if onshore flow strengthens earlier than expected. Recent post-heat-wave subsidence has kept 850 hPa temperatures elevated while limiting widespread convection, consistent with the narrow spread between the leading outcomes and lower odds on 96°F-plus or sub-90°F scenarios. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs tomorrow will further refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?
94-95°F 38%
92-93°F 31%
90-91°F 15%
96-97°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
87°F or below
1%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
15%
92-93°F
31%
94-95°F
38%
96-97°F
11%
98-99°F
5%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 38%
92-93°F 31%
90-91°F 15%
96-97°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
87°F or below
$111 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$304 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$761 Vol.
15%
92-93°F
$159 Vol.
31%
94-95°F
$1,502 Vol.
38%
96-97°F
$431 Vol.
11%
98-99°F
$3 Vol.
5%
100-101°F
$136 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$300 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$696 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions and light southwesterly flow supporting a peak temperature near 93–94°F in Central Park on July 16, placing the closely matched 92–93°F and 94–95°F brackets at the top of trader probabilities. Coastal sea-breeze timing and afternoon marine-layer depth introduce the main uncertainty, potentially trimming 2–4°F from inland readings if onshore flow strengthens earlier than expected. Recent post-heat-wave subsidence has kept 850 hPa temperatures elevated while limiting widespread convection, consistent with the narrow spread between the leading outcomes and lower odds on 96°F-plus or sub-90°F scenarios. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs tomorrow will further refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,418End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions and light southwesterly flow supporting a peak temperature near 93–94°F in Central Park on July 16, placing the closely matched 92–93°F and 94–95°F brackets at the top of trader probabilities. Coastal sea-breeze timing and afternoon marine-layer depth introduce the main uncertainty, potentially trimming 2–4°F from inland readings if onshore flow strengthens earlier than expected. Recent post-heat-wave subsidence has kept 850 hPa temperatures elevated while limiting widespread convection, consistent with the narrow spread between the leading outcomes and lower odds on 96°F-plus or sub-90°F scenarios. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs tomorrow will further refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,418End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate partly cloudy conditions and light southwesterly flow supporting a peak temperature near 93–94°F in Central Park on July 16, placing the closely matched 92–93°F and 94–95°F brackets at the top of trader probabilities. Coastal sea-breeze timing and afternoon marine-layer depth introduce the main uncertainty, potentially trimming 2–4°F from inland readings if onshore flow strengthens earlier than expected. Recent post-heat-wave subsidence has kept 850 hPa temperatures elevated while limiting widespread convection, consistent with the narrow spread between the leading outcomes and lower odds on 96°F-plus or sub-90°F scenarios. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model runs tomorrow will further refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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