**Trader sentiment for Cape Town's July 17 maximum temperature centers on short-range forecast model outputs and mid-winter climatology.** With the market-implied probability highest for 19 °C (31 %) followed by 18 °C (25 %), traders are pricing outcomes near the long-term July average high of roughly 17–18 °C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any passing Atlantic cold fronts, which can suppress daytime maxima by 2–4 °C through increased cloud cover and onshore flow, versus clearer conditions under a ridging high-pressure system that allows modest warming. Sea-surface temperatures around 15–16 °C anchor the lower bound, while localized orographic effects from Table Mountain can produce brief temperature variations of 1–2 °C across the city. Model consensus currently favors a stable, near-average pattern without strong warm advection or intense frontal passage in the 48-hour window, keeping probabilities tightly clustered between 17 °C and 20 °C. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will be the next major catalyst for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 17?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 17?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$49,234 Vol.
$49,234 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$49,234 Vol.
$49,234 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
$5,601 Vol.
No
16°C
$6,200 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,443 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,133 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,950 Vol.
No
20°C
$8,701 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$4,068 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,790 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,227 Vol.
No
24°C
$709 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$411 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Cape Town's July 17 maximum temperature centers on short-range forecast model outputs and mid-winter climatology.** With the market-implied probability highest for 19 °C (31 %) followed by 18 °C (25 %), traders are pricing outcomes near the long-term July average high of roughly 17–18 °C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any passing Atlantic cold fronts, which can suppress daytime maxima by 2–4 °C through increased cloud cover and onshore flow, versus clearer conditions under a ridging high-pressure system that allows modest warming. Sea-surface temperatures around 15–16 °C anchor the lower bound, while localized orographic effects from Table Mountain can produce brief temperature variations of 1–2 °C across the city. Model consensus currently favors a stable, near-average pattern without strong warm advection or intense frontal passage in the 48-hour window, keeping probabilities tightly clustered between 17 °C and 20 °C. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will be the next major catalyst for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$49,234End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Cape Town's July 17 maximum temperature centers on short-range forecast model outputs and mid-winter climatology.** With the market-implied probability highest for 19 °C (31 %) followed by 18 °C (25 %), traders are pricing outcomes near the long-term July average high of roughly 17–18 °C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any passing Atlantic cold fronts, which can suppress daytime maxima by 2–4 °C through increased cloud cover and onshore flow, versus clearer conditions under a ridging high-pressure system that allows modest warming. Sea-surface temperatures around 15–16 °C anchor the lower bound, while localized orographic effects from Table Mountain can produce brief temperature variations of 1–2 °C across the city. Model consensus currently favors a stable, near-average pattern without strong warm advection or intense frontal passage in the 48-hour window, keeping probabilities tightly clustered between 17 °C and 20 °C. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will be the next major catalyst for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$49,234End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for Cape Town's July 17 maximum temperature centers on short-range forecast model outputs and mid-winter climatology.** With the market-implied probability highest for 19 °C (31 %) followed by 18 °C (25 %), traders are pricing outcomes near the long-term July average high of roughly 17–18 °C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any passing Atlantic cold fronts, which can suppress daytime maxima by 2–4 °C through increased cloud cover and onshore flow, versus clearer conditions under a ridging high-pressure system that allows modest warming. Sea-surface temperatures around 15–16 °C anchor the lower bound, while localized orographic effects from Table Mountain can produce brief temperature variations of 1–2 °C across the city. Model consensus currently favors a stable, near-average pattern without strong warm advection or intense frontal passage in the 48-hour window, keeping probabilities tightly clustered between 17 °C and 20 °C. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will be the next major catalyst for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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