Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a moderate high of 24–26°C for Paris on July 20, driven by a northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-July, where average highs reach about 24–25°C, following an earlier heat spell that peaked near 36°C around July 7 but has since eased. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for 24°C and 25% for 25°C, incorporates these model outputs and the low likelihood of extreme deviation in the final 48-hour window. Shorter-range updates from official agencies over the next day will refine wind, insolation, and boundary-layer details that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on July 20?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?
24°C 43%
25°C 24%
23°C 22%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
22%
24°C
43%
25°C
24%
26°C
6%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 43%
25°C 24%
23°C 22%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
21°C or below
$192 Vol.
2%
22°C
$153 Vol.
6%
23°C
$413 Vol.
22%
24°C
$548 Vol.
43%
25°C
$190 Vol.
24%
26°C
$221 Vol.
6%
27°C
$189 Vol.
1%
28°C
$911 Vol.
1%
29°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$471 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a moderate high of 24–26°C for Paris on July 20, driven by a northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-July, where average highs reach about 24–25°C, following an earlier heat spell that peaked near 36°C around July 7 but has since eased. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for 24°C and 25% for 25°C, incorporates these model outputs and the low likelihood of extreme deviation in the final 48-hour window. Shorter-range updates from official agencies over the next day will refine wind, insolation, and boundary-layer details that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,680End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a moderate high of 24–26°C for Paris on July 20, driven by a northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-July, where average highs reach about 24–25°C, following an earlier heat spell that peaked near 36°C around July 7 but has since eased. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for 24°C and 25% for 25°C, incorporates these model outputs and the low likelihood of extreme deviation in the final 48-hour window. Shorter-range updates from official agencies over the next day will refine wind, insolation, and boundary-layer details that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,680End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a moderate high of 24–26°C for Paris on July 20, driven by a northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-July, where average highs reach about 24–25°C, following an earlier heat spell that peaked near 36°C around July 7 but has since eased. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for 24°C and 25% for 25°C, incorporates these model outputs and the low likelihood of extreme deviation in the final 48-hour window. Shorter-range updates from official agencies over the next day will refine wind, insolation, and boundary-layer details that could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions