Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 18 maximum near 23–26 °C, with 24 °C holding the highest implied probability as models converge on modest Atlantic-driven cooling after earlier July warmth. Key differentiating factors include the timing of a weak frontal passage, variable cloud cover that limits solar heating, and boundary-layer moisture affecting the afternoon peak. Small shifts in low-level wind direction or clearance of stratiform cloud can swing the daily high by 1–2 °C, explaining the tight clustering around 24–26 °C while lower and higher outcomes remain marginal. Updated model runs and Met Office guidance on July 17 will further refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on July 18?
Highest temperature in London on July 18?
21°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$218,330 Vol.
$218,330 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$218,330 Vol.
$218,330 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
$19,697 Vol.
No
21°C
$45,240 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$36,248 Vol.
No
23°C
$32,061 Vol.
No
24°C
$26,937 Vol.
No
25°C
$19,105 Vol.
No
26°C
$14,864 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,755 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,629 Vol.
No
29°C
$7,580 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$215 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 18 maximum near 23–26 °C, with 24 °C holding the highest implied probability as models converge on modest Atlantic-driven cooling after earlier July warmth. Key differentiating factors include the timing of a weak frontal passage, variable cloud cover that limits solar heating, and boundary-layer moisture affecting the afternoon peak. Small shifts in low-level wind direction or clearance of stratiform cloud can swing the daily high by 1–2 °C, explaining the tight clustering around 24–26 °C while lower and higher outcomes remain marginal. Updated model runs and Met Office guidance on July 17 will further refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$218,330End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 18 maximum near 23–26 °C, with 24 °C holding the highest implied probability as models converge on modest Atlantic-driven cooling after earlier July warmth. Key differentiating factors include the timing of a weak frontal passage, variable cloud cover that limits solar heating, and boundary-layer moisture affecting the afternoon peak. Small shifts in low-level wind direction or clearance of stratiform cloud can swing the daily high by 1–2 °C, explaining the tight clustering around 24–26 °C while lower and higher outcomes remain marginal. Updated model runs and Met Office guidance on July 17 will further refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$218,330End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's July 18 maximum near 23–26 °C, with 24 °C holding the highest implied probability as models converge on modest Atlantic-driven cooling after earlier July warmth. Key differentiating factors include the timing of a weak frontal passage, variable cloud cover that limits solar heating, and boundary-layer moisture affecting the afternoon peak. Small shifts in low-level wind direction or clearance of stratiform cloud can swing the daily high by 1–2 °C, explaining the tight clustering around 24–26 °C while lower and higher outcomes remain marginal. Updated model runs and Met Office guidance on July 17 will further refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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