Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 17?
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,596 Vol.
$46,596 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,596 Vol.
$46,596 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
27°C or below
$2,301 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,081 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,011 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,857 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,546 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,837 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$7,412 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,103 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,079 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,430 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$1,939 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$46,596End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,596End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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