Forecast uncertainty for July 17 stems primarily from the East Asian summer monsoon’s variable influence on Seoul, where cloud cover, rainfall timing, and nocturnal radiative cooling can shift overnight lows by several degrees. Current model consensus points to typical mid-July conditions with lows near 22–24 °C, yet the near-even split between the 28 °C+ and 18 °C-or-below outcomes reflects trader assessment of possible deviations: clearer, drier air masses could allow stronger cooling toward the lower threshold, while persistent humidity, weak winds, or warm advection might keep readings elevated. Historical July minimums average 22–23 °C, underscoring how modest changes in steering patterns or precipitation timing—key variables monitored by Korea Meteorological Administration updates—can swing the recorded low across market thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on July 17?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 17?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$26,227 Vol.
$26,227 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$26,227 Vol.
$26,227 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,857 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,078 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,050 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,247 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,788 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,879 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$3,399 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,259 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,105 Vol.
No
27°C
$839 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$726 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for July 17 stems primarily from the East Asian summer monsoon’s variable influence on Seoul, where cloud cover, rainfall timing, and nocturnal radiative cooling can shift overnight lows by several degrees. Current model consensus points to typical mid-July conditions with lows near 22–24 °C, yet the near-even split between the 28 °C+ and 18 °C-or-below outcomes reflects trader assessment of possible deviations: clearer, drier air masses could allow stronger cooling toward the lower threshold, while persistent humidity, weak winds, or warm advection might keep readings elevated. Historical July minimums average 22–23 °C, underscoring how modest changes in steering patterns or precipitation timing—key variables monitored by Korea Meteorological Administration updates—can swing the recorded low across market thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,227End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for July 17 stems primarily from the East Asian summer monsoon’s variable influence on Seoul, where cloud cover, rainfall timing, and nocturnal radiative cooling can shift overnight lows by several degrees. Current model consensus points to typical mid-July conditions with lows near 22–24 °C, yet the near-even split between the 28 °C+ and 18 °C-or-below outcomes reflects trader assessment of possible deviations: clearer, drier air masses could allow stronger cooling toward the lower threshold, while persistent humidity, weak winds, or warm advection might keep readings elevated. Historical July minimums average 22–23 °C, underscoring how modest changes in steering patterns or precipitation timing—key variables monitored by Korea Meteorological Administration updates—can swing the recorded low across market thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,227End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast uncertainty for July 17 stems primarily from the East Asian summer monsoon’s variable influence on Seoul, where cloud cover, rainfall timing, and nocturnal radiative cooling can shift overnight lows by several degrees. Current model consensus points to typical mid-July conditions with lows near 22–24 °C, yet the near-even split between the 28 °C+ and 18 °C-or-below outcomes reflects trader assessment of possible deviations: clearer, drier air masses could allow stronger cooling toward the lower threshold, while persistent humidity, weak winds, or warm advection might keep readings elevated. Historical July minimums average 22–23 °C, underscoring how modest changes in steering patterns or precipitation timing—key variables monitored by Korea Meteorological Administration updates—can swing the recorded low across market thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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