Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
21°C or below
$386 Vol.
No
22°C
$455 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,670 Vol.
No
24°C
$792 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,542 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,745 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$3,966 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,019 Vol.
No
29°C
$767 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,006 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$982 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,330End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,330End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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