National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport project a July 25 high near 91–92 °F under typical mid-summer subtropical ridging, anchoring the tight 45.5 % and 40 % implied probabilities on the 92–93 °F and 90–91 °F bins. Abundant low-level moisture and a modest sea-breeze circulation favor scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating while also limiting how far temperatures can fall below guidance. With only modest spread among short-range models and no strong signals for drier mid-level air or delayed thunderstorm initiation, traders see limited room for 94 °F-plus outcomes (9 %) or sub-90 °F results (under 9 % combined). The next 12Z NWS update and morning sounding data will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on July 25?
Highest temperature in Miami on July 25?
90-91°F 46%
92-93°F 38%
88-89°F 10%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
46%
92-93°F
38%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
2%
98°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 46%
92-93°F 38%
88-89°F 10%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
79°F or below
$340 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$159 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$155 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$83 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$1,041 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$368 Vol.
10%
90-91°F
$2,669 Vol.
46%
92-93°F
$1,346 Vol.
38%
94-95°F
$274 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$130 Vol.
2%
98°F or higher
$186 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport project a July 25 high near 91–92 °F under typical mid-summer subtropical ridging, anchoring the tight 45.5 % and 40 % implied probabilities on the 92–93 °F and 90–91 °F bins. Abundant low-level moisture and a modest sea-breeze circulation favor scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating while also limiting how far temperatures can fall below guidance. With only modest spread among short-range models and no strong signals for drier mid-level air or delayed thunderstorm initiation, traders see limited room for 94 °F-plus outcomes (9 %) or sub-90 °F results (under 9 % combined). The next 12Z NWS update and morning sounding data will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$6,745End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport project a July 25 high near 91–92 °F under typical mid-summer subtropical ridging, anchoring the tight 45.5 % and 40 % implied probabilities on the 92–93 °F and 90–91 °F bins. Abundant low-level moisture and a modest sea-breeze circulation favor scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating while also limiting how far temperatures can fall below guidance. With only modest spread among short-range models and no strong signals for drier mid-level air or delayed thunderstorm initiation, traders see limited room for 94 °F-plus outcomes (9 %) or sub-90 °F results (under 9 % combined). The next 12Z NWS update and morning sounding data will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,745End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport project a July 25 high near 91–92 °F under typical mid-summer subtropical ridging, anchoring the tight 45.5 % and 40 % implied probabilities on the 92–93 °F and 90–91 °F bins. Abundant low-level moisture and a modest sea-breeze circulation favor scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating while also limiting how far temperatures can fall below guidance. With only modest spread among short-range models and no strong signals for drier mid-level air or delayed thunderstorm initiation, traders see limited room for 94 °F-plus outcomes (9 %) or sub-90 °F results (under 9 % combined). The next 12Z NWS update and morning sounding data will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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