Current forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a likely daily maximum near 30–31°C in Milan on July 24, driven by typical late-July subtropical high pressure and limited advection of cooler Atlantic air. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in local boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping the 31°C outcome at the highest market-implied probability. Recent model runs have stabilized around these values with no major shifts in the past 48 hours, though any strengthening of northerly flow or increased cloud cover could favor the 30°C bin. Traders weigh these variables against climatological baselines for the Po Valley, where peaks near 31°C align with observed trends in recent warm seasons.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 24?
31°C 45%
30°C 34%
29°C 17%
32°C 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
28°C or below
3%
29°C
17%
30°C
34%
31°C
45%
32°C
6%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 45%
30°C 34%
29°C 17%
32°C 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
28°C or below
$57 Vol.
3%
29°C
$104 Vol.
17%
30°C
$49 Vol.
34%
31°C
$76 Vol.
45%
32°C
$50 Vol.
6%
33°C
$22 Vol.
1%
34°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$53 Vol.
1%
36°C
$61 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$207 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$137 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a likely daily maximum near 30–31°C in Milan on July 24, driven by typical late-July subtropical high pressure and limited advection of cooler Atlantic air. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in local boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping the 31°C outcome at the highest market-implied probability. Recent model runs have stabilized around these values with no major shifts in the past 48 hours, though any strengthening of northerly flow or increased cloud cover could favor the 30°C bin. Traders weigh these variables against climatological baselines for the Po Valley, where peaks near 31°C align with observed trends in recent warm seasons.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$847End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a likely daily maximum near 30–31°C in Milan on July 24, driven by typical late-July subtropical high pressure and limited advection of cooler Atlantic air. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in local boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping the 31°C outcome at the highest market-implied probability. Recent model runs have stabilized around these values with no major shifts in the past 48 hours, though any strengthening of northerly flow or increased cloud cover could favor the 30°C bin. Traders weigh these variables against climatological baselines for the Po Valley, where peaks near 31°C align with observed trends in recent warm seasons.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$847End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a likely daily maximum near 30–31°C in Milan on July 24, driven by typical late-July subtropical high pressure and limited advection of cooler Atlantic air. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in local boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects, keeping the 31°C outcome at the highest market-implied probability. Recent model runs have stabilized around these values with no major shifts in the past 48 hours, though any strengthening of northerly flow or increased cloud cover could favor the 30°C bin. Traders weigh these variables against climatological baselines for the Po Valley, where peaks near 31°C align with observed trends in recent warm seasons.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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