Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24–26°C as the daily maximum for Istanbul on July 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts from regional models cluster around that narrow band amid typical mid-summer variability. Istanbul’s July climate features average highs near 29°C moderated by Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes, but recent model runs show a transient cooler air mass and increased cloud cover suppressing peak readings by a few degrees relative to climatology. Key differentiators among the leading outcomes include the precise timing and strength of afternoon sea-breeze onset, urban heat-island amplification at official measurement sites, and any late-day convective development that could briefly elevate or cap temperatures. With only two days remaining, updated model guidance and real-time observations will continue to tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 24?
24°C 32%
26°C 31%
25°C 30%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
13%
24°C
32%
25°C
30%
26°C
24%
27°C
7%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 32%
26°C 31%
25°C 30%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
21°C or below
$228 Vol.
1%
22°C
$133 Vol.
3%
23°C
$41 Vol.
13%
24°C
$84 Vol.
32%
25°C
$101 Vol.
30%
26°C
$37 Vol.
24%
27°C
$40 Vol.
7%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$118 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24–26°C as the daily maximum for Istanbul on July 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts from regional models cluster around that narrow band amid typical mid-summer variability. Istanbul’s July climate features average highs near 29°C moderated by Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes, but recent model runs show a transient cooler air mass and increased cloud cover suppressing peak readings by a few degrees relative to climatology. Key differentiators among the leading outcomes include the precise timing and strength of afternoon sea-breeze onset, urban heat-island amplification at official measurement sites, and any late-day convective development that could briefly elevate or cap temperatures. With only two days remaining, updated model guidance and real-time observations will continue to tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$824End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24–26°C as the daily maximum for Istanbul on July 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts from regional models cluster around that narrow band amid typical mid-summer variability. Istanbul’s July climate features average highs near 29°C moderated by Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes, but recent model runs show a transient cooler air mass and increased cloud cover suppressing peak readings by a few degrees relative to climatology. Key differentiators among the leading outcomes include the precise timing and strength of afternoon sea-breeze onset, urban heat-island amplification at official measurement sites, and any late-day convective development that could briefly elevate or cap temperatures. With only two days remaining, updated model guidance and real-time observations will continue to tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$824End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24–26°C as the daily maximum for Istanbul on July 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts from regional models cluster around that narrow band amid typical mid-summer variability. Istanbul’s July climate features average highs near 29°C moderated by Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes, but recent model runs show a transient cooler air mass and increased cloud cover suppressing peak readings by a few degrees relative to climatology. Key differentiators among the leading outcomes include the precise timing and strength of afternoon sea-breeze onset, urban heat-island amplification at official measurement sites, and any late-day convective development that could briefly elevate or cap temperatures. With only two days remaining, updated model guidance and real-time observations will continue to tighten the distribution around the current market-implied range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions