Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 15?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?
98-99°F 42%
100-101°F 23%
96-97°F 21%
102-103°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
93°F or below
4%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
21%
98-99°F
42%
100-101°F
23%
102-103°F
8%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 42%
100-101°F 23%
96-97°F 21%
102-103°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
93°F or below
$319 Vol.
4%
94-95°F
$344 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$341 Vol.
21%
98-99°F
$270 Vol.
42%
100-101°F
$212 Vol.
23%
102-103°F
$84 Vol.
8%
104-105°F
$101 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$186 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$377 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$265 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,749End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,749End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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