Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a return of seasonably warm conditions across the Northeast, with New York City forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s on July 14 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 92–95°F because NYC’s coastal location introduces key uncertainty from sea-breeze timing and marine-layer depth, which can shave 2–4°F off peak readings if onshore flow strengthens by afternoon. Differentiating the 96–97°F versus 92–93°F bins hinges on boundary-layer mixing, residual mid-level moisture that could limit insolation, and the precise strength of warm-air advection ahead of any weak frontal passage. Historical July climatology supports highs near 85°F, so current above-average guidance reflects the post-heat-wave pattern, with latest model runs and official updates expected to narrow resolution odds by midday July 13.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 14?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?
94-95°F 37%
92-93°F 24%
96-97°F 18%
98-99°F 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
24%
94-95°F
37%
96-97°F
18%
98-99°F
5%
100-101°F
2%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 37%
92-93°F 24%
96-97°F 18%
98-99°F 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
87°F or below
$38 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$28 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$298 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$325 Vol.
24%
94-95°F
$79 Vol.
37%
96-97°F
$143 Vol.
18%
98-99°F
$258 Vol.
5%
100-101°F
$480 Vol.
2%
102-103°F
$187 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$257 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a return of seasonably warm conditions across the Northeast, with New York City forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s on July 14 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 92–95°F because NYC’s coastal location introduces key uncertainty from sea-breeze timing and marine-layer depth, which can shave 2–4°F off peak readings if onshore flow strengthens by afternoon. Differentiating the 96–97°F versus 92–93°F bins hinges on boundary-layer mixing, residual mid-level moisture that could limit insolation, and the precise strength of warm-air advection ahead of any weak frontal passage. Historical July climatology supports highs near 85°F, so current above-average guidance reflects the post-heat-wave pattern, with latest model runs and official updates expected to narrow resolution odds by midday July 13.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,108End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a return of seasonably warm conditions across the Northeast, with New York City forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s on July 14 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 92–95°F because NYC’s coastal location introduces key uncertainty from sea-breeze timing and marine-layer depth, which can shave 2–4°F off peak readings if onshore flow strengthens by afternoon. Differentiating the 96–97°F versus 92–93°F bins hinges on boundary-layer mixing, residual mid-level moisture that could limit insolation, and the precise strength of warm-air advection ahead of any weak frontal passage. Historical July climatology supports highs near 85°F, so current above-average guidance reflects the post-heat-wave pattern, with latest model runs and official updates expected to narrow resolution odds by midday July 13.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,108End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a return of seasonably warm conditions across the Northeast, with New York City forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s on July 14 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 92–95°F because NYC’s coastal location introduces key uncertainty from sea-breeze timing and marine-layer depth, which can shave 2–4°F off peak readings if onshore flow strengthens by afternoon. Differentiating the 96–97°F versus 92–93°F bins hinges on boundary-layer mixing, residual mid-level moisture that could limit insolation, and the precise strength of warm-air advection ahead of any weak frontal passage. Historical July climatology supports highs near 85°F, so current above-average guidance reflects the post-heat-wave pattern, with latest model runs and official updates expected to narrow resolution odds by midday July 13.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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