Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge sustaining above-normal warmth across northern France, with Paris afternoon maxima centered near 35–36 °C on July 13. Clear skies, light winds, and limited cloud cover favor strong insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, while subtle differences in forecasted 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point depressions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 34 °C and 37 °C. Continued heatwave conditions following the June–early July episode reduce downside risk but leave room for minor cooling if a weak front arrives sooner than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on July 13?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?
35°C 34%
34°C 32%
36°C 16%
33°C 10.6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
31°C or below
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
11%
34°C
32%
35°C
34%
36°C
16%
37°C
7%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 34%
34°C 32%
36°C 16%
33°C 10.6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
31°C or below
$68 Vol.
1%
32°C
$98 Vol.
3%
33°C
$333 Vol.
11%
34°C
$330 Vol.
32%
35°C
$122 Vol.
34%
36°C
$552 Vol.
16%
37°C
$498 Vol.
7%
38°C
$461 Vol.
1%
39°C
$207 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$167 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge sustaining above-normal warmth across northern France, with Paris afternoon maxima centered near 35–36 °C on July 13. Clear skies, light winds, and limited cloud cover favor strong insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, while subtle differences in forecasted 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point depressions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 34 °C and 37 °C. Continued heatwave conditions following the June–early July episode reduce downside risk but leave room for minor cooling if a weak front arrives sooner than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,195End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge sustaining above-normal warmth across northern France, with Paris afternoon maxima centered near 35–36 °C on July 13. Clear skies, light winds, and limited cloud cover favor strong insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, while subtle differences in forecasted 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point depressions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 34 °C and 37 °C. Continued heatwave conditions following the June–early July episode reduce downside risk but leave room for minor cooling if a weak front arrives sooner than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,195End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge sustaining above-normal warmth across northern France, with Paris afternoon maxima centered near 35–36 °C on July 13. Clear skies, light winds, and limited cloud cover favor strong insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, while subtle differences in forecasted 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point depressions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 34 °C and 37 °C. Continued heatwave conditions following the June–early July episode reduce downside risk but leave room for minor cooling if a weak front arrives sooner than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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