Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight increased monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers over Seoul through mid-July, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling to position morning lows near or below 23°C. This aligns with the market's leading 19°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability, as persistent humidity near 80% and variable precipitation patterns create conditions for modest cooling relative to seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and rainfall timing over the next 48 hours remains the key variable that could shift probabilities toward the clustered 22–24°C outcomes if clearer skies allow greater overnight warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on July 15?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 15?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$32,533 Vol.
$32,533 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$32,533 Vol.
$32,533 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
19°C or below
$791 Vol.
No
20°C
$708 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,636 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,158 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,939 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$6,586 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,332 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,872 Vol.
No
27°C
$585 Vol.
No
28°C
$602 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$325 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight increased monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers over Seoul through mid-July, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling to position morning lows near or below 23°C. This aligns with the market's leading 19°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability, as persistent humidity near 80% and variable precipitation patterns create conditions for modest cooling relative to seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and rainfall timing over the next 48 hours remains the key variable that could shift probabilities toward the clustered 22–24°C outcomes if clearer skies allow greater overnight warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,533End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight increased monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers over Seoul through mid-July, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling to position morning lows near or below 23°C. This aligns with the market's leading 19°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability, as persistent humidity near 80% and variable precipitation patterns create conditions for modest cooling relative to seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and rainfall timing over the next 48 hours remains the key variable that could shift probabilities toward the clustered 22–24°C outcomes if clearer skies allow greater overnight warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,533End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight increased monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers over Seoul through mid-July, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling to position morning lows near or below 23°C. This aligns with the market's leading 19°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability, as persistent humidity near 80% and variable precipitation patterns create conditions for modest cooling relative to seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and rainfall timing over the next 48 hours remains the key variable that could shift probabilities toward the clustered 22–24°C outcomes if clearer skies allow greater overnight warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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