Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
36°C 47%
37°C 31%
35°C 21%
38°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
21%
36°C
47%
37°C
31%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 47%
37°C 31%
35°C 21%
38°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
$39 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$30 Vol.
1%
34°C
$24 Vol.
1%
35°C
$156 Vol.
21%
36°C
$113 Vol.
47%
37°C
$42 Vol.
31%
38°C
$52 Vol.
4%
39°C
$31 Vol.
1%
40°C
$33 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$585End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$585End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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