Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid will see mostly sunny conditions and light winds under a stable high-pressure ridge on July 14, supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 35–37°C. This range aligns with typical mid-July climatology for the city’s continental climate, where clear skies and southerly flow can add 1–2°C through enhanced solar heating and minimal mixing. Minor model spread arises from subtle variations in afternoon cloud development or boundary-layer moisture, which traders weigh when pricing the 36°C and 37°C contracts at roughly 37% and 32% implied probability. Updated guidance from official agencies over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 14?
36°C 37%
37°C 32%
35°C 12%
38°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
5%
35°C
12%
36°C
37%
37°C
32%
38°C
7%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
36°C 37%
37°C 32%
35°C 12%
38°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
33°C or below
$18 Vol.
1%
34°C
$0 Vol.
5%
35°C
$8 Vol.
12%
36°C
$46 Vol.
37%
37°C
$73 Vol.
32%
38°C
$189 Vol.
7%
39°C
$38 Vol.
4%
40°C
$22 Vol.
1%
41°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid will see mostly sunny conditions and light winds under a stable high-pressure ridge on July 14, supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 35–37°C. This range aligns with typical mid-July climatology for the city’s continental climate, where clear skies and southerly flow can add 1–2°C through enhanced solar heating and minimal mixing. Minor model spread arises from subtle variations in afternoon cloud development or boundary-layer moisture, which traders weigh when pricing the 36°C and 37°C contracts at roughly 37% and 32% implied probability. Updated guidance from official agencies over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$414End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid will see mostly sunny conditions and light winds under a stable high-pressure ridge on July 14, supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 35–37°C. This range aligns with typical mid-July climatology for the city’s continental climate, where clear skies and southerly flow can add 1–2°C through enhanced solar heating and minimal mixing. Minor model spread arises from subtle variations in afternoon cloud development or boundary-layer moisture, which traders weigh when pricing the 36°C and 37°C contracts at roughly 37% and 32% implied probability. Updated guidance from official agencies over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$414End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and ensemble models indicate Madrid will see mostly sunny conditions and light winds under a stable high-pressure ridge on July 14, supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 35–37°C. This range aligns with typical mid-July climatology for the city’s continental climate, where clear skies and southerly flow can add 1–2°C through enhanced solar heating and minimal mixing. Minor model spread arises from subtle variations in afternoon cloud development or boundary-layer moisture, which traders weigh when pricing the 36°C and 37°C contracts at roughly 37% and 32% implied probability. Updated guidance from official agencies over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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