Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 14?
29°C 37%
28°C 34%
30°C 27%
27°C 3.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
34%
29°C
37%
30°C
27%
31°C
3%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 37%
28°C 34%
30°C 27%
27°C 3.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
23°C or below
$622 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$405 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,990 Vol.
4%
28°C
$576 Vol.
34%
29°C
$532 Vol.
37%
30°C
$496 Vol.
27%
31°C
$1,144 Vol.
3%
32°C
$575 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$818 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$8,518End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,518End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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