Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?
34°C 59%
33°C 20%
35°C 19%
36°C 3.8%
$28,374 Vol.
$28,374 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
32°C or below
2%
33°C
20%
34°C
59%
35°C
19%
36°C
4%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
34°C 59%
33°C 20%
35°C 19%
36°C 3.8%
$28,374 Vol.
$28,374 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
32°C or below
$1,830 Vol.
2%
33°C
$3,314 Vol.
20%
34°C
$4,267 Vol.
59%
35°C
$6,837 Vol.
19%
36°C
$5,137 Vol.
4%
37°C
$2,643 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$853 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$736 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$617 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$722 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$28,374End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,374End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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