Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models indicate Beijing's July 14 maximum will likely fall in the 33–35 °C range, with 34 °C emerging as the modal outcome amid lingering effects from July 13 rainfall that increased surface moisture and moderated afternoon heating. Traders are weighing the balance between daytime solar insolation under variable cloud cover, urban heat-island amplification, and possible weak frontal influences that could cap or boost temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 31–33 °C provide context, while ensemble spread highlights sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and wind patterns; any shift in the next model runs or official CMA guidance could quickly reprice the tightly bunched 33–35 °C contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 14?
34°C 30%
33°C 27%
32°C 20%
35°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
31°C or below
5%
32°C
14%
33°C
28%
34°C
28%
35°C
20%
36°C
13%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
34°C 30%
33°C 27%
32°C 20%
35°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Jul 14, 2026
31°C or below
$63 Vol.
5%
32°C
$38 Vol.
14%
33°C
$10 Vol.
28%
34°C
$21 Vol.
28%
35°C
$4 Vol.
20%
36°C
$11 Vol.
13%
37°C
$0 Vol.
4%
38°C
$12 Vol.
1%
39°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models indicate Beijing's July 14 maximum will likely fall in the 33–35 °C range, with 34 °C emerging as the modal outcome amid lingering effects from July 13 rainfall that increased surface moisture and moderated afternoon heating. Traders are weighing the balance between daytime solar insolation under variable cloud cover, urban heat-island amplification, and possible weak frontal influences that could cap or boost temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 31–33 °C provide context, while ensemble spread highlights sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and wind patterns; any shift in the next model runs or official CMA guidance could quickly reprice the tightly bunched 33–35 °C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$519End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models indicate Beijing's July 14 maximum will likely fall in the 33–35 °C range, with 34 °C emerging as the modal outcome amid lingering effects from July 13 rainfall that increased surface moisture and moderated afternoon heating. Traders are weighing the balance between daytime solar insolation under variable cloud cover, urban heat-island amplification, and possible weak frontal influences that could cap or boost temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 31–33 °C provide context, while ensemble spread highlights sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and wind patterns; any shift in the next model runs or official CMA guidance could quickly reprice the tightly bunched 33–35 °C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$519End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models indicate Beijing's July 14 maximum will likely fall in the 33–35 °C range, with 34 °C emerging as the modal outcome amid lingering effects from July 13 rainfall that increased surface moisture and moderated afternoon heating. Traders are weighing the balance between daytime solar insolation under variable cloud cover, urban heat-island amplification, and possible weak frontal influences that could cap or boost temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 31–33 °C provide context, while ensemble spread highlights sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and wind patterns; any shift in the next model runs or official CMA guidance could quickly reprice the tightly bunched 33–35 °C contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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