Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office indicate overnight lows in London on July 16 will likely settle between 15–18°C amid a warm spell transitioning with possible thunderstorms and increased cloud cover. This pattern limits radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds maintain milder minima, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from exact frontal timing and Atlantic moisture influx, with historical July averages near 15°C providing baseline context. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 16?
Lowest temperature in London on July 16?
16°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$22,935 Vol.
$22,935 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$22,935 Vol.
$22,935 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
12°C or below
$1,199 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,310 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,540 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,578 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,249 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$5,601 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,871 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,644 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,619 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,887 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$437 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office indicate overnight lows in London on July 16 will likely settle between 15–18°C amid a warm spell transitioning with possible thunderstorms and increased cloud cover. This pattern limits radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds maintain milder minima, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from exact frontal timing and Atlantic moisture influx, with historical July averages near 15°C providing baseline context. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$22,935End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office indicate overnight lows in London on July 16 will likely settle between 15–18°C amid a warm spell transitioning with possible thunderstorms and increased cloud cover. This pattern limits radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds maintain milder minima, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from exact frontal timing and Atlantic moisture influx, with historical July averages near 15°C providing baseline context. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,935End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast models from agencies like the Met Office indicate overnight lows in London on July 16 will likely settle between 15–18°C amid a warm spell transitioning with possible thunderstorms and increased cloud cover. This pattern limits radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds maintain milder minima, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16°C. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from exact frontal timing and Atlantic moisture influx, with historical July averages near 15°C providing baseline context. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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