Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C for London on August 2 under generally mild, above-normal conditions for early August, supported by light winds and limited radiative cooling. Model consensus shows warm southerly flow limiting overnight drops, though small shifts in cloud cover or Atlantic trough positioning could allow slightly cooler readings in the mid-teens if clearer skies enhance heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–18°C reflects this narrow forecast range and typical ensemble spread for a 48-hour horizon, while the elevated probability assigned to 11°C or below captures residual downside risk from any unexpected northerly perturbation. Historical August minima average near 13–14°C, but 2026’s record-warm nighttime trend has kept trader focus on the upper side of that baseline ahead of final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 2?
Lowest temperature in London on August 2?
16°C 52%
11°C or below 32%
17°C 32%
19°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
11°C or below
32%
12°C
4%
13°C
8%
14°C
16%
15°C
29%
16°C
52%
17°C
32%
18°C
14%
19°C
31%
20°C
30%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 52%
11°C or below 32%
17°C 32%
19°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
32%
12°C
$16 Vol.
4%
13°C
$1 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$40 Vol.
29%
16°C
$16 Vol.
52%
17°C
$0 Vol.
32%
18°C
$0 Vol.
14%
19°C
$25 Vol.
31%
20°C
$10 Vol.
30%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C for London on August 2 under generally mild, above-normal conditions for early August, supported by light winds and limited radiative cooling. Model consensus shows warm southerly flow limiting overnight drops, though small shifts in cloud cover or Atlantic trough positioning could allow slightly cooler readings in the mid-teens if clearer skies enhance heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–18°C reflects this narrow forecast range and typical ensemble spread for a 48-hour horizon, while the elevated probability assigned to 11°C or below captures residual downside risk from any unexpected northerly perturbation. Historical August minima average near 13–14°C, but 2026’s record-warm nighttime trend has kept trader focus on the upper side of that baseline ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C for London on August 2 under generally mild, above-normal conditions for early August, supported by light winds and limited radiative cooling. Model consensus shows warm southerly flow limiting overnight drops, though small shifts in cloud cover or Atlantic trough positioning could allow slightly cooler readings in the mid-teens if clearer skies enhance heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–18°C reflects this narrow forecast range and typical ensemble spread for a 48-hour horizon, while the elevated probability assigned to 11°C or below captures residual downside risk from any unexpected northerly perturbation. Historical August minima average near 13–14°C, but 2026’s record-warm nighttime trend has kept trader focus on the upper side of that baseline ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and BBC forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C for London on August 2 under generally mild, above-normal conditions for early August, supported by light winds and limited radiative cooling. Model consensus shows warm southerly flow limiting overnight drops, though small shifts in cloud cover or Atlantic trough positioning could allow slightly cooler readings in the mid-teens if clearer skies enhance heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–18°C reflects this narrow forecast range and typical ensemble spread for a 48-hour horizon, while the elevated probability assigned to 11°C or below captures residual downside risk from any unexpected northerly perturbation. Historical August minima average near 13–14°C, but 2026’s record-warm nighttime trend has kept trader focus on the upper side of that baseline ahead of final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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