**Trader sentiment centers on 25–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 2, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus near the long-term early-August average of 23–26°C.** Recent model runs show a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions and light winds, supporting modest daytime heating, while any embedded short-wave trough or increased cloud cover could cap the peak 1–2°C lower. Historical analogs from similar late-July setups indicate limited potential for 28°C+ unless subsidence strengthens markedly. Key uncertainties include the timing of any Atlantic front and boundary-layer moisture, with official guidance from sources like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management or ECMWF updates expected to refine odds before resolution. This tight clustering underscores genuine meteorological variability in a transitional summer pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 2?
26°C 33%
25°C 25%
27°C 22%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
25%
26°C
33%
27°C
22%
28°C or higher
6%
26°C 33%
25°C 25%
27°C 22%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$121 Vol.
2%
24°C
$186 Vol.
9%
25°C
$20 Vol.
25%
26°C
$64 Vol.
33%
27°C
$14 Vol.
22%
28°C or higher
$542 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on 25–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 2, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus near the long-term early-August average of 23–26°C.** Recent model runs show a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions and light winds, supporting modest daytime heating, while any embedded short-wave trough or increased cloud cover could cap the peak 1–2°C lower. Historical analogs from similar late-July setups indicate limited potential for 28°C+ unless subsidence strengthens markedly. Key uncertainties include the timing of any Atlantic front and boundary-layer moisture, with official guidance from sources like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management or ECMWF updates expected to refine odds before resolution. This tight clustering underscores genuine meteorological variability in a transitional summer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$966End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on 25–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 2, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus near the long-term early-August average of 23–26°C.** Recent model runs show a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions and light winds, supporting modest daytime heating, while any embedded short-wave trough or increased cloud cover could cap the peak 1–2°C lower. Historical analogs from similar late-July setups indicate limited potential for 28°C+ unless subsidence strengthens markedly. Key uncertainties include the timing of any Atlantic front and boundary-layer moisture, with official guidance from sources like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management or ECMWF updates expected to refine odds before resolution. This tight clustering underscores genuine meteorological variability in a transitional summer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$966End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on 25–27°C as the most probable daily maximum in Warsaw on August 2, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus near the long-term early-August average of 23–26°C.** Recent model runs show a ridge of high pressure promoting mostly sunny conditions and light winds, supporting modest daytime heating, while any embedded short-wave trough or increased cloud cover could cap the peak 1–2°C lower. Historical analogs from similar late-July setups indicate limited potential for 28°C+ unless subsidence strengthens markedly. Key uncertainties include the timing of any Atlantic front and boundary-layer moisture, with official guidance from sources like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management or ECMWF updates expected to refine odds before resolution. This tight clustering underscores genuine meteorological variability in a transitional summer pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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