Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 1 in the 28–32 °C range, producing tightly clustered market probabilities around 29–31 °C. A lingering warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, favors afternoon highs near 30 °C under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any weak frontal passage, preventing stronger consensus. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for adjustments ahead of the 48-hour window, when local observations will determine the official peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 1?
28°C or below 28%
29°C 21%
30°C 20%
31°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
28%
29°C
21%
30°C
20%
31°C
20%
32°C
11%
33°C
3%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
28°C or below 28%
29°C 21%
30°C 20%
31°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
$20 Vol.
28%
29°C
$14 Vol.
21%
30°C
$14 Vol.
20%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C
$68 Vol.
11%
33°C
$6 Vol.
3%
34°C
$11 Vol.
4%
35°C
$26 Vol.
1%
36°C
$25 Vol.
1%
37°C
$0 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 1 in the 28–32 °C range, producing tightly clustered market probabilities around 29–31 °C. A lingering warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, favors afternoon highs near 30 °C under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any weak frontal passage, preventing stronger consensus. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for adjustments ahead of the 48-hour window, when local observations will determine the official peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 1 in the 28–32 °C range, producing tightly clustered market probabilities around 29–31 °C. A lingering warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, favors afternoon highs near 30 °C under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any weak frontal passage, preventing stronger consensus. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for adjustments ahead of the 48-hour window, when local observations will determine the official peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 1 in the 28–32 °C range, producing tightly clustered market probabilities around 29–31 °C. A lingering warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, favors afternoon highs near 30 °C under mostly sunny conditions with light easterly flow. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any weak frontal passage, preventing stronger consensus. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for adjustments ahead of the 48-hour window, when local observations will determine the official peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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