Latest short-range forecasts from regional models indicate partly cloudy to rainy conditions over Guangzhou on August 1, driven by monsoon moisture and afternoon convection that limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima near 30–32°C. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and urban heat retention, while historical August climatology places typical highs around 31–33°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C. Lower probabilities for 28°C or below reflect limited cold-air intrusion risk, whereas 33°C-plus scenarios require clearer skies and stronger subsidence that current runs do not strongly favor. Updated model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?
31°C 27%
30°C 25%
28°C 19%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
6%
27°C
16%
28°C
19%
29°C
14%
30°C
25%
31°C
27%
32°C
19%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
5%
31°C 27%
30°C 25%
28°C 19%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$28 Vol.
6%
27°C
$36 Vol.
16%
28°C
$105 Vol.
19%
29°C
$0 Vol.
14%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$0 Vol.
27%
32°C
$74 Vol.
19%
33°C
$50 Vol.
16%
34°C
$55 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$30 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range forecasts from regional models indicate partly cloudy to rainy conditions over Guangzhou on August 1, driven by monsoon moisture and afternoon convection that limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima near 30–32°C. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and urban heat retention, while historical August climatology places typical highs around 31–33°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C. Lower probabilities for 28°C or below reflect limited cold-air intrusion risk, whereas 33°C-plus scenarios require clearer skies and stronger subsidence that current runs do not strongly favor. Updated model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$382End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range forecasts from regional models indicate partly cloudy to rainy conditions over Guangzhou on August 1, driven by monsoon moisture and afternoon convection that limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima near 30–32°C. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and urban heat retention, while historical August climatology places typical highs around 31–33°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C. Lower probabilities for 28°C or below reflect limited cold-air intrusion risk, whereas 33°C-plus scenarios require clearer skies and stronger subsidence that current runs do not strongly favor. Updated model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$382End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range forecasts from regional models indicate partly cloudy to rainy conditions over Guangzhou on August 1, driven by monsoon moisture and afternoon convection that limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima near 30–32°C. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability from cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and urban heat retention, while historical August climatology places typical highs around 31–33°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2°C. Lower probabilities for 28°C or below reflect limited cold-air intrusion risk, whereas 33°C-plus scenarios require clearer skies and stronger subsidence that current runs do not strongly favor. Updated model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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