Recent ECMWF and KNMI model runs position 22–24 °C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 1, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration of probability at 23 °C (35.5 %). Typical early-August climatology features highs near 22–23 °C under moderate westerly flow and North Sea influence, with limited diurnal warming expected from lingering marine air. No significant ridge or heat advection is forecast in the next 48 hours, keeping the chance of 26 °C or higher below 10 %. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band of short-range guidance—where small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the peak by 1–2 °C—against the historical rarity of extremes this early in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 1?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 1?
23°C 35%
24°C 34%
22°C 19%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
20°C or below
4%
21°C
12%
22°C
19%
23°C
35%
24°C
34%
25°C
12%
26°C
7%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
23°C 35%
24°C 34%
22°C 19%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
20°C or below
$1 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$86 Vol.
35%
24°C
$0 Vol.
34%
25°C
$0 Vol.
12%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$13 Vol.
2%
28°C
$20 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and KNMI model runs position 22–24 °C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 1, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration of probability at 23 °C (35.5 %). Typical early-August climatology features highs near 22–23 °C under moderate westerly flow and North Sea influence, with limited diurnal warming expected from lingering marine air. No significant ridge or heat advection is forecast in the next 48 hours, keeping the chance of 26 °C or higher below 10 %. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band of short-range guidance—where small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the peak by 1–2 °C—against the historical rarity of extremes this early in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and KNMI model runs position 22–24 °C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 1, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration of probability at 23 °C (35.5 %). Typical early-August climatology features highs near 22–23 °C under moderate westerly flow and North Sea influence, with limited diurnal warming expected from lingering marine air. No significant ridge or heat advection is forecast in the next 48 hours, keeping the chance of 26 °C or higher below 10 %. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band of short-range guidance—where small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the peak by 1–2 °C—against the historical rarity of extremes this early in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and KNMI model runs position 22–24 °C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s daily maximum on August 1, aligning with the market’s heaviest concentration of probability at 23 °C (35.5 %). Typical early-August climatology features highs near 22–23 °C under moderate westerly flow and North Sea influence, with limited diurnal warming expected from lingering marine air. No significant ridge or heat advection is forecast in the next 48 hours, keeping the chance of 26 °C or higher below 10 %. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band of short-range guidance—where small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the peak by 1–2 °C—against the historical rarity of extremes this early in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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