Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 1?
Lowest temperature in London on August 1?
16°C 52%
15°C 33%
17°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
13°C or below
19%
14°C
26%
15°C
33%
16°C
52%
17°C
27%
18°C
21%
19°C
19%
20°C
9%
21°C
8%
22°C
7%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 52%
15°C 33%
17°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
13°C or below
$8 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
33%
16°C
$0 Vol.
52%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$8 Vol.
19%
20°C
$32 Vol.
9%
21°C
$32 Vol.
8%
22°C
$32 Vol.
7%
23°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$105End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$105End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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