Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, positioning the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast minimum of 24°C for August 2 as the leading outcome. Typical early-August climatological lows hover near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture, southeasterly flow, and reduced solar heating are expected to suppress readings toward the lower end of the seasonal range. Model guidance and official HKO outlooks indicate limited overnight warming potential, with any clearing skies or lighter winds offering the main upside risk toward 25°C or higher. Traders are weighting these near-term synoptic conditions heavily, while the longer-term seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides background context but limited influence on this single-day resolution. Updated HKO forecasts and regional model runs over the next 24 hours will be the key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?
24°C 43%
25°C 32%
23°C 20%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
20%
24°C
43%
25°C
32%
26°C
9%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 43%
25°C 32%
23°C 20%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$423 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$621 Vol.
2%
23°C
$685 Vol.
20%
24°C
$847 Vol.
43%
25°C
$2,395 Vol.
32%
26°C
$515 Vol.
9%
27°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$208 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, positioning the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast minimum of 24°C for August 2 as the leading outcome. Typical early-August climatological lows hover near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture, southeasterly flow, and reduced solar heating are expected to suppress readings toward the lower end of the seasonal range. Model guidance and official HKO outlooks indicate limited overnight warming potential, with any clearing skies or lighter winds offering the main upside risk toward 25°C or higher. Traders are weighting these near-term synoptic conditions heavily, while the longer-term seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides background context but limited influence on this single-day resolution. Updated HKO forecasts and regional model runs over the next 24 hours will be the key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,919End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, positioning the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast minimum of 24°C for August 2 as the leading outcome. Typical early-August climatological lows hover near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture, southeasterly flow, and reduced solar heating are expected to suppress readings toward the lower end of the seasonal range. Model guidance and official HKO outlooks indicate limited overnight warming potential, with any clearing skies or lighter winds offering the main upside risk toward 25°C or higher. Traders are weighting these near-term synoptic conditions heavily, while the longer-term seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides background context but limited influence on this single-day resolution. Updated HKO forecasts and regional model runs over the next 24 hours will be the key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,919End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, positioning the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast minimum of 24°C for August 2 as the leading outcome. Typical early-August climatological lows hover near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture, southeasterly flow, and reduced solar heating are expected to suppress readings toward the lower end of the seasonal range. Model guidance and official HKO outlooks indicate limited overnight warming potential, with any clearing skies or lighter winds offering the main upside risk toward 25°C or higher. Traders are weighting these near-term synoptic conditions heavily, while the longer-term seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides background context but limited influence on this single-day resolution. Updated HKO forecasts and regional model runs over the next 24 hours will be the key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions