**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
29°C 36%
28°C 26%
30°C 23%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
8%
28°C
26%
29°C
36%
30°C
23%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
28°C 26%
30°C 23%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
$49 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$364 Vol.
1%
27°C
$604 Vol.
8%
28°C
$23 Vol.
26%
29°C
$224 Vol.
36%
30°C
$320 Vol.
23%
31°C
$31 Vol.
6%
32°C
$42 Vol.
3%
33°C
$235 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$208 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,295End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,295End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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