Recent forecasts from official meteorological services and ensemble models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with light northerly winds, minimal cloud cover, and clear skies expected to support daytime heating in Istanbul on August 3. These factors favor peak temperatures near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C at representative stations, explaining the near-even market-implied odds of 30–34.5% across 27–29°C outcomes. Minor differences among these leading probabilities reflect small ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture, local sea-breeze timing, and urban heat-island effects, while the low 6% probability assigned to 30°C or higher aligns with limited potential for stronger insolation or southerly flow shifts before resolution. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the key data to refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
28°C 35%
29°C 31%
27°C 30%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
5%
27°C
30%
28°C
35%
29°C
31%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 35%
29°C 31%
27°C 30%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$16 Vol.
30%
28°C
$55 Vol.
35%
29°C
$40 Vol.
31%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$6 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official meteorological services and ensemble models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with light northerly winds, minimal cloud cover, and clear skies expected to support daytime heating in Istanbul on August 3. These factors favor peak temperatures near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C at representative stations, explaining the near-even market-implied odds of 30–34.5% across 27–29°C outcomes. Minor differences among these leading probabilities reflect small ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture, local sea-breeze timing, and urban heat-island effects, while the low 6% probability assigned to 30°C or higher aligns with limited potential for stronger insolation or southerly flow shifts before resolution. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the key data to refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official meteorological services and ensemble models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with light northerly winds, minimal cloud cover, and clear skies expected to support daytime heating in Istanbul on August 3. These factors favor peak temperatures near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C at representative stations, explaining the near-even market-implied odds of 30–34.5% across 27–29°C outcomes. Minor differences among these leading probabilities reflect small ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture, local sea-breeze timing, and urban heat-island effects, while the low 6% probability assigned to 30°C or higher aligns with limited potential for stronger insolation or southerly flow shifts before resolution. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the key data to refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from official meteorological services and ensemble models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with light northerly winds, minimal cloud cover, and clear skies expected to support daytime heating in Istanbul on August 3. These factors favor peak temperatures near the long-term early-August average of 28–29°C at representative stations, explaining the near-even market-implied odds of 30–34.5% across 27–29°C outcomes. Minor differences among these leading probabilities reflect small ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture, local sea-breeze timing, and urban heat-island effects, while the low 6% probability assigned to 30°C or higher aligns with limited potential for stronger insolation or southerly flow shifts before resolution. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the key data to refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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