El Niño conditions, now strengthening with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus toward 31–32°C for Singapore’s August 1 maximum. These coupled ocean-atmosphere patterns favor above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall through the southwest monsoon period, shifting daily highs slightly above the long-term 31°C August mean. Short-term dynamical models show limited spread around this range, with localized afternoon convection and humidity near 80% introducing the primary uncertainty between adjacent degree thresholds. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly because historical analogs and current observational trends indicate low likelihood of extremes beyond 33°C or below 30°C under these conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Singapore on August 1?
Highest temperature in Singapore on August 1?
32°C 53%
31°C 23%
33°C 21%
30°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
23%
32°C
53%
33°C
21%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 53%
31°C 23%
33°C 21%
30°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
26°C or below
$326 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$101 Vol.
1%
29°C
$56 Vol.
1%
30°C
$40 Vol.
5%
31°C
$166 Vol.
23%
32°C
$188 Vol.
53%
33°C
$75 Vol.
21%
34°C
$40 Vol.
3%
35°C
$40 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.El Niño conditions, now strengthening with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus toward 31–32°C for Singapore’s August 1 maximum. These coupled ocean-atmosphere patterns favor above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall through the southwest monsoon period, shifting daily highs slightly above the long-term 31°C August mean. Short-term dynamical models show limited spread around this range, with localized afternoon convection and humidity near 80% introducing the primary uncertainty between adjacent degree thresholds. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly because historical analogs and current observational trends indicate low likelihood of extremes beyond 33°C or below 30°C under these conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,142End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.El Niño conditions, now strengthening with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus toward 31–32°C for Singapore’s August 1 maximum. These coupled ocean-atmosphere patterns favor above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall through the southwest monsoon period, shifting daily highs slightly above the long-term 31°C August mean. Short-term dynamical models show limited spread around this range, with localized afternoon convection and humidity near 80% introducing the primary uncertainty between adjacent degree thresholds. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly because historical analogs and current observational trends indicate low likelihood of extremes beyond 33°C or below 30°C under these conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,142End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now strengthening with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus toward 31–32°C for Singapore’s August 1 maximum. These coupled ocean-atmosphere patterns favor above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall through the southwest monsoon period, shifting daily highs slightly above the long-term 31°C August mean. Short-term dynamical models show limited spread around this range, with localized afternoon convection and humidity near 80% introducing the primary uncertainty between adjacent degree thresholds. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly because historical analogs and current observational trends indicate low likelihood of extremes beyond 33°C or below 30°C under these conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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