Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely peak of 33–36°C in Tokyo on July 31, with variability driven by cloud cover, scattered showers, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°C to central districts. Recent days have seen highs near 31–34°C under similar summer patterns, while long-term July baselines average around 30–32°C before urban influences. Trader sentiment clusters around 34°C because model runs diverge on afternoon solar heating versus any convective cooling, with resolution hinging on official thermometer readings at designated stations. Updated guidance in the next 48 hours could narrow these probabilities further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
34°C 28%
35°C 25%
36°C 17%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
7%
32°C
11%
33°C
16%
34°C
28%
35°C
25%
36°C
17%
37°C
11%
38°C
3%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 28%
35°C 25%
36°C 17%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
29°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$433 Vol.
1%
31°C
$16 Vol.
7%
32°C
$3 Vol.
11%
33°C
$0 Vol.
16%
34°C
$0 Vol.
28%
35°C
$11 Vol.
25%
36°C
$26 Vol.
17%
37°C
$235 Vol.
11%
38°C
$129 Vol.
3%
39°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely peak of 33–36°C in Tokyo on July 31, with variability driven by cloud cover, scattered showers, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°C to central districts. Recent days have seen highs near 31–34°C under similar summer patterns, while long-term July baselines average around 30–32°C before urban influences. Trader sentiment clusters around 34°C because model runs diverge on afternoon solar heating versus any convective cooling, with resolution hinging on official thermometer readings at designated stations. Updated guidance in the next 48 hours could narrow these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$905End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely peak of 33–36°C in Tokyo on July 31, with variability driven by cloud cover, scattered showers, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°C to central districts. Recent days have seen highs near 31–34°C under similar summer patterns, while long-term July baselines average around 30–32°C before urban influences. Trader sentiment clusters around 34°C because model runs diverge on afternoon solar heating versus any convective cooling, with resolution hinging on official thermometer readings at designated stations. Updated guidance in the next 48 hours could narrow these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$905End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely peak of 33–36°C in Tokyo on July 31, with variability driven by cloud cover, scattered showers, and urban heat island effects that can add 1–2°C to central districts. Recent days have seen highs near 31–34°C under similar summer patterns, while long-term July baselines average around 30–32°C before urban influences. Trader sentiment clusters around 34°C because model runs diverge on afternoon solar heating versus any convective cooling, with resolution hinging on official thermometer readings at designated stations. Updated guidance in the next 48 hours could narrow these probabilities further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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