Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate mostly clear skies and daytime highs near 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 4, 2026, under typical early-August conditions with moderate humidity. Ensemble model spreads and local factors such as urban heat island effects or brief sunshine amplification create realistic upside potential of 2–4°C above guidance, positioning 34°C as the leading outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows average early-August highs of 29–31°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal and support the market clustering on 34–36°C rather than raw model values. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering patterns remain key variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 4?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 4?
34°C 36%
35°C 23%
36°C or higher 22%
33°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
5%
33°C
20%
34°C
36%
35°C
23%
36°C or higher
22%
34°C 36%
35°C 23%
36°C or higher 22%
33°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
$353 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$443 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$27 Vol.
1%
31°C
$33 Vol.
1%
32°C
$34 Vol.
5%
33°C
$4 Vol.
20%
34°C
$51 Vol.
36%
35°C
$24 Vol.
23%
36°C or higher
$44 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate mostly clear skies and daytime highs near 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 4, 2026, under typical early-August conditions with moderate humidity. Ensemble model spreads and local factors such as urban heat island effects or brief sunshine amplification create realistic upside potential of 2–4°C above guidance, positioning 34°C as the leading outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows average early-August highs of 29–31°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal and support the market clustering on 34–36°C rather than raw model values. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering patterns remain key variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,488End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate mostly clear skies and daytime highs near 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 4, 2026, under typical early-August conditions with moderate humidity. Ensemble model spreads and local factors such as urban heat island effects or brief sunshine amplification create realistic upside potential of 2–4°C above guidance, positioning 34°C as the leading outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows average early-August highs of 29–31°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal and support the market clustering on 34–36°C rather than raw model values. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering patterns remain key variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,488End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate mostly clear skies and daytime highs near 30–32°C for Qingdao on August 4, 2026, under typical early-August conditions with moderate humidity. Ensemble model spreads and local factors such as urban heat island effects or brief sunshine amplification create realistic upside potential of 2–4°C above guidance, positioning 34°C as the leading outcome at 36.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows average early-August highs of 29–31°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal and support the market clustering on 34–36°C rather than raw model values. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering patterns remain key variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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