**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
34°C 38%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
18%
34°C
38%
35°C
33%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$104 Vol.
2%
31°C
$69 Vol.
2%
32°C
$203 Vol.
4%
33°C
$209 Vol.
18%
34°C
$148 Vol.
38%
35°C
$442 Vol.
33%
36°C
$97 Vol.
10%
37°C
$58 Vol.
2%
38°C
$125 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,558End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,558End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast variability across numerical weather models drives the tight clustering between 34°C (37.5%) and 35°C (33.0%) implied probabilities.** Recent days have seen maxima near 37–38°C under a strong subtropical high with clear skies and light winds, but updated runs for August 4 indicate possible modest increases in cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap the daily high slightly lower. Shanghai’s urban heat island effect and high humidity typical of the East Asian summer monsoon add sensitivity to small changes in insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official monitoring from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact maximum recorded at standard stations, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and local model bias when assigning near-even odds between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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