Recent model guidance for Toronto on August 2 shows modest spread across ensemble members, with peak temperatures most often projected near 23–24 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Subtle differences in the timing and strength of a weak upper-level trough, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon cloud cover explain the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around these values rather than higher or lower outcomes. Environment Canada and GFS/ECMWF runs indicate limited warm advection and no strong ridge support, keeping the distribution tight while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2 °C at this lead time. Updated model cycles and official guidance tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 2?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 2?
24°C 34%
22°C 26%
23°C 25%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
26%
23°C
25%
24°C
34%
25°C
16%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 34%
22°C 26%
23°C 25%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$188 Vol.
1%
21°C
$197 Vol.
3%
22°C
$854 Vol.
26%
23°C
$321 Vol.
25%
24°C
$933 Vol.
34%
25°C
$501 Vol.
16%
26°C
$194 Vol.
2%
27°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance for Toronto on August 2 shows modest spread across ensemble members, with peak temperatures most often projected near 23–24 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Subtle differences in the timing and strength of a weak upper-level trough, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon cloud cover explain the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around these values rather than higher or lower outcomes. Environment Canada and GFS/ECMWF runs indicate limited warm advection and no strong ridge support, keeping the distribution tight while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2 °C at this lead time. Updated model cycles and official guidance tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$3,896End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance for Toronto on August 2 shows modest spread across ensemble members, with peak temperatures most often projected near 23–24 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Subtle differences in the timing and strength of a weak upper-level trough, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon cloud cover explain the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around these values rather than higher or lower outcomes. Environment Canada and GFS/ECMWF runs indicate limited warm advection and no strong ridge support, keeping the distribution tight while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2 °C at this lead time. Updated model cycles and official guidance tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,896End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance for Toronto on August 2 shows modest spread across ensemble members, with peak temperatures most often projected near 23–24 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Subtle differences in the timing and strength of a weak upper-level trough, boundary-layer mixing depth, and afternoon cloud cover explain the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around these values rather than higher or lower outcomes. Environment Canada and GFS/ECMWF runs indicate limited warm advection and no strong ridge support, keeping the distribution tight while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2 °C at this lead time. Updated model cycles and official guidance tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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