**Short-term forecast models indicate a highest temperature in Wellington on August 3 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by transient northerly airflow and reduced cloud cover allowing modest daytime warming above seasonal norms.** Historical August maxima average 12–13°C (54–55°F) at Wellington Aero, with NIWA’s June–August outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near- or below-average temperatures amid an emerging El Niño that favors west-southwesterly flow. Recent model runs show slight positive anomalies from transient high-pressure influences and lighter winds, while variability in cloud and timing of any frontal passage creates the tight 15–16°C market split. Official MetService and international guidance will refine the exact peak ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 10%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
10%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 10%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
$371 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$58 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$148 Vol.
1%
13°C
$35 Vol.
2%
14°C
$153 Vol.
10%
15°C
$168 Vol.
41%
16°C
$151 Vol.
41%
17°C
$230 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$52 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate a highest temperature in Wellington on August 3 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by transient northerly airflow and reduced cloud cover allowing modest daytime warming above seasonal norms.** Historical August maxima average 12–13°C (54–55°F) at Wellington Aero, with NIWA’s June–August outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near- or below-average temperatures amid an emerging El Niño that favors west-southwesterly flow. Recent model runs show slight positive anomalies from transient high-pressure influences and lighter winds, while variability in cloud and timing of any frontal passage creates the tight 15–16°C market split. Official MetService and international guidance will refine the exact peak ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,366End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate a highest temperature in Wellington on August 3 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by transient northerly airflow and reduced cloud cover allowing modest daytime warming above seasonal norms.** Historical August maxima average 12–13°C (54–55°F) at Wellington Aero, with NIWA’s June–August outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near- or below-average temperatures amid an emerging El Niño that favors west-southwesterly flow. Recent model runs show slight positive anomalies from transient high-pressure influences and lighter winds, while variability in cloud and timing of any frontal passage creates the tight 15–16°C market split. Official MetService and international guidance will refine the exact peak ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,366End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast models indicate a highest temperature in Wellington on August 3 most likely between 14–16°C, driven by transient northerly airflow and reduced cloud cover allowing modest daytime warming above seasonal norms.** Historical August maxima average 12–13°C (54–55°F) at Wellington Aero, with NIWA’s June–August outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near- or below-average temperatures amid an emerging El Niño that favors west-southwesterly flow. Recent model runs show slight positive anomalies from transient high-pressure influences and lighter winds, while variability in cloud and timing of any frontal passage creates the tight 15–16°C market split. Official MetService and international guidance will refine the exact peak ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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