**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4 centers on 25–26°C as the most probable range, reflecting typical subtropical summer conditions and official outlooks.** Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly forecasts for August 2026 indicate normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO influences, with near-normal rainfall expected. Short-range guidance shows showers or overcast skies on August 4 with overnight lows near 26°C and daytime highs of 29–31°C, aligning closely with climatological August minima around 27°C that can moderate to 25–26°C under cloud cover or precipitation. Scientific factors include high humidity, limited nocturnal radiative cooling in the urban heat island, and the South China Sea monsoon trough favoring warm, moist air masses. The elevated probability on 21°C or below (19.5%) captures tail risk from heavier showers or model variability, while warmer outcomes above 27°C remain less favored given the absence of strong warming signals in early-August guidance. Updated HKO briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be key for refining these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
25°C 37%
21°C or below 31%
26°C 26%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
31%
22°C
12%
23°C
11%
24°C
19%
25°C
37%
26°C
26%
27°C
14%
28°C
10%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 37%
21°C or below 31%
26°C 26%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
$42 Vol.
31%
22°C
$42 Vol.
12%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$10 Vol.
37%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
14%
28°C
$10 Vol.
10%
29°C
$32 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4 centers on 25–26°C as the most probable range, reflecting typical subtropical summer conditions and official outlooks.**
Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly forecasts for August 2026 indicate normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO influences, with near-normal rainfall expected. Short-range guidance shows showers or overcast skies on August 4 with overnight lows near 26°C and daytime highs of 29–31°C, aligning closely with climatological August minima around 27°C that can moderate to 25–26°C under cloud cover or precipitation.
Scientific factors include high humidity, limited nocturnal radiative cooling in the urban heat island, and the South China Sea monsoon trough favoring warm, moist air masses. The elevated probability on 21°C or below (19.5%) captures tail risk from heavier showers or model variability, while warmer outcomes above 27°C remain less favored given the absence of strong warming signals in early-August guidance. Updated HKO briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be key for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$135End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4 centers on 25–26°C as the most probable range, reflecting typical subtropical summer conditions and official outlooks.**
Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly forecasts for August 2026 indicate normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO influences, with near-normal rainfall expected. Short-range guidance shows showers or overcast skies on August 4 with overnight lows near 26°C and daytime highs of 29–31°C, aligning closely with climatological August minima around 27°C that can moderate to 25–26°C under cloud cover or precipitation.
Scientific factors include high humidity, limited nocturnal radiative cooling in the urban heat island, and the South China Sea monsoon trough favoring warm, moist air masses. The elevated probability on 21°C or below (19.5%) captures tail risk from heavier showers or model variability, while warmer outcomes above 27°C remain less favored given the absence of strong warming signals in early-August guidance. Updated HKO briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be key for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$135End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4 centers on 25–26°C as the most probable range, reflecting typical subtropical summer conditions and official outlooks.** Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly forecasts for August 2026 indicate normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO influences, with near-normal rainfall expected. Short-range guidance shows showers or overcast skies on August 4 with overnight lows near 26°C and daytime highs of 29–31°C, aligning closely with climatological August minima around 27°C that can moderate to 25–26°C under cloud cover or precipitation. Scientific factors include high humidity, limited nocturnal radiative cooling in the urban heat island, and the South China Sea monsoon trough favoring warm, moist air masses. The elevated probability on 21°C or below (19.5%) captures tail risk from heavier showers or model variability, while warmer outcomes above 27°C remain less favored given the absence of strong warming signals in early-August guidance. Updated HKO briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be key for refining these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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