Persistent warm, humid maritime tropical air over South Florida is positioning Miami's August 3 overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the 80–81°F range holding the highest market-implied probability. Elevated dew points limit radiational cooling under typical summer conditions, while light winds and possible cloud cover from the subtropical ridge further suppress temperature drops. Recent model consensus from NOAA shows minimal frontal influence or tropical moisture enhancements through the period, keeping readings near or slightly above seasonal normals around 78–80°F. Traders are weighting the narrow 76–83°F window heavily due to forecast stability, though minor shifts in wind patterns or increased convection could adjust the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 3?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 3?
80-81°F 39%
78-79°F 22%
76-77°F 14%
82-83°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
11%
86°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 39%
78-79°F 22%
76-77°F 14%
82-83°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$5 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$25 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$89 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$307 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$11 Vol.
14%
78-79°F
$59 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$67 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$1 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$31 Vol.
11%
86°F or higher
$92 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid maritime tropical air over South Florida is positioning Miami's August 3 overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the 80–81°F range holding the highest market-implied probability. Elevated dew points limit radiational cooling under typical summer conditions, while light winds and possible cloud cover from the subtropical ridge further suppress temperature drops. Recent model consensus from NOAA shows minimal frontal influence or tropical moisture enhancements through the period, keeping readings near or slightly above seasonal normals around 78–80°F. Traders are weighting the narrow 76–83°F window heavily due to forecast stability, though minor shifts in wind patterns or increased convection could adjust the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$687End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid maritime tropical air over South Florida is positioning Miami's August 3 overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the 80–81°F range holding the highest market-implied probability. Elevated dew points limit radiational cooling under typical summer conditions, while light winds and possible cloud cover from the subtropical ridge further suppress temperature drops. Recent model consensus from NOAA shows minimal frontal influence or tropical moisture enhancements through the period, keeping readings near or slightly above seasonal normals around 78–80°F. Traders are weighting the narrow 76–83°F window heavily due to forecast stability, though minor shifts in wind patterns or increased convection could adjust the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$687End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm, humid maritime tropical air over South Florida is positioning Miami's August 3 overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the 80–81°F range holding the highest market-implied probability. Elevated dew points limit radiational cooling under typical summer conditions, while light winds and possible cloud cover from the subtropical ridge further suppress temperature drops. Recent model consensus from NOAA shows minimal frontal influence or tropical moisture enhancements through the period, keeping readings near or slightly above seasonal normals around 78–80°F. Traders are weighting the narrow 76–83°F window heavily due to forecast stability, though minor shifts in wind patterns or increased convection could adjust the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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