**Trader consensus centers on 25–27°C for Moscow’s August 4 high, with 26°C holding the highest implied probability at 32%.** Short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European ensembles currently clusters maximum temperatures in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Slight differences among runs arise from variations in predicted cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough that could cap afternoon heating. These factors create genuine uncertainty around whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of the favored range, consistent with the close market spreads. Historical early-August averages near 23–24°C provide context that current conditions reflect modestly above-normal warmth, while model spread and typical forecast error of 1–2°C explain why no single outcome exceeds 32% implied probability. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
26°C 37%
25°C 28%
27°C 19%
24°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
7%
24°C
16%
25°C
28%
26°C
32%
27°C
19%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 37%
25°C 28%
27°C 19%
24°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
1%
22°C
$37 Vol.
3%
23°C
$25 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
16%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$13 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
19%
28°C
$4 Vol.
3%
29°C
$20 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$32 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 25–27°C for Moscow’s August 4 high, with 26°C holding the highest implied probability at 32%.** Short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European ensembles currently clusters maximum temperatures in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Slight differences among runs arise from variations in predicted cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough that could cap afternoon heating. These factors create genuine uncertainty around whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of the favored range, consistent with the close market spreads. Historical early-August averages near 23–24°C provide context that current conditions reflect modestly above-normal warmth, while model spread and typical forecast error of 1–2°C explain why no single outcome exceeds 32% implied probability. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 25–27°C for Moscow’s August 4 high, with 26°C holding the highest implied probability at 32%.** Short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European ensembles currently clusters maximum temperatures in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Slight differences among runs arise from variations in predicted cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough that could cap afternoon heating. These factors create genuine uncertainty around whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of the favored range, consistent with the close market spreads. Historical early-August averages near 23–24°C provide context that current conditions reflect modestly above-normal warmth, while model spread and typical forecast error of 1–2°C explain why no single outcome exceeds 32% implied probability. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 25–27°C for Moscow’s August 4 high, with 26°C holding the highest implied probability at 32%.** Short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and European ensembles currently clusters maximum temperatures in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Slight differences among runs arise from variations in predicted cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough that could cap afternoon heating. These factors create genuine uncertainty around whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of the favored range, consistent with the close market spreads. Historical early-August averages near 23–24°C provide context that current conditions reflect modestly above-normal warmth, while model spread and typical forecast error of 1–2°C explain why no single outcome exceeds 32% implied probability. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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